The eminent Tom Foss, who used to interact with me but has moved on to greener pastures (and bully for him, I say!) said this:
Gosh, maybe it's just the years of calculus, but it seems to me that trying to apply probabilistic reasoning to a process that isn't random, isn't common enough to have its frequency even hypothesized about, and has never been observed by anyone, is just mathematical wankery.
That's pretty interesting.
1) I have been corrected by evolutionists that ToE is not random. (So I don't say it's random anymore; rather, I say "unguided natural selection acting on random mutations".)
2) Macroevolution isn't very common; else it would be really really easy to put forward numerous examples to satisfy the evolutionary skeptic like me.
3) Macroevolution via unguided natural selection acting on random mutations has not, as far as I know, been observed.
Evolutionists, Tom Foss is not your ally. Just FYI. No more mathematical...well, you know... please.